Arizona High School Football 16 for 2016: Week 5

Each week of the 2016 football season, I'll take you through my top 16 match-ups of the week, with analysis and predictions. The rankings associated with each team in the 16 for 2016 breakdown come from the ArizonaVarsity Media Poll.

You can also view the STATE FORTY EIGHT Power 48 Rankings here.

I went 12-4 in last week's predictions. Congratulations to Tempe Prep, Maricopa, Dobson and Marana Mountain View for proving me wrong. My best prediction was probably Desert Edge beating Mesquite by 11 points (they won by 11).

Overall prediction record: 73-25 (74%)

16)

Desert Vista has had one of the toughest schedules in the state, if not the toughest, and despite being 1-3, they've had a respectable run defense. Dobson is going to test that. The Mustangs are 4-0 for the forst time since 2001, and they've done it with a strong running game. Angel Hermasillo and Joseph Flores both have 7 rushing TDs, and if that Dobson duo can hold onto the football, and each get in the end zone, this game will be competitive.

Prediction: Desert Vista 34, Dobson 17

15)

Coach Manuel Alcantar deserves a lot of credit for the resurgence of Dysart. I had a chance to see them in person last year and it was easy to tell that they were on the right track, but even I'm surprised by the level of success they've had so far. I'm not yet a believer in the Demons, but if Pacey Prettyman can lead them to a win over Peoria on the road, I'll be looking online for some Dysart merch so I can fit in when riding on the bandwagon.

Prediction: Peoria 36, Dysart 28

14)

Cesar Chavez has been competitive, but the bottom dropped out in the second half against Hamilton last week. Can they get healthy against a rival this Friday? Maybe, but Fairfax has held their own in 5A, and has experience against the division's best team (Desert Edge). I'm going with Fairfax because Shamar Moreland has me thinking the Stampede have the defense to get this done. The last two matchups with Chavez haven;t even been competitive, so I'm going out on a limb here.

Prediction: Fairfax 28, Chavez 27

13)

The best two Arizona senior QBs without a D1 offer will square off in Tempe. This is a game that should be worth the price of admission. Brock Hall and Naz Greer have plenty of help, and in this game, I think it'll be Zyayre Moss that gets loose. Moss has 11 TDs in 4 games for the Padres this year. Let's see if he can add 3 more.

Prediction: Marcos de Niza 41, Casa Grande 28

12)

Yuma Catholic owes Northwest Christian some payback after their championship hopes were dashed in brutal fashion, AT HOME, last November, 47-0. These are two very different teams, but the Crusaders still have Tyler Worrell, and he played a huge role on offense and defense in that game. Now, he's at QB.

Prediction: Northwest Christian 28, Yuma Catholic 20

11)

4A Catalina Foothills didn't have much luck against the first defending champion on their schedule this year, losing to Saguaro 35-0, but Pusch Ridge is a different sort of defending champion, moving up from Arizona's smallest 11-man division to content in 3A. Catalina Foothills should win this game behind Rhett Rodriguez and a strong passing game that has had it's way with defenses the last two weeks, but Pusch is no push-over. Dakota Haynes and company will keep this low scoring, but ultimately fall to a larger school.

Prediction: Catalina Foothills 24, Pusch Ridge 14

10)

Tucson gets no brakes in 2016, and it's making for a very interesting season. Cienega averages 20 yards per pass completion, and lives off the big play. If the Badgers shore things up defensively, they might be able to make enough plays to hold Jamarye Joiner at bay as a running QB.

Prediction: Cienega 35, Tucson 28

9)

I'm blown away by Brophy. The team I watched beat Pinnacle 31-10 to start the year wasn't one that impressed me. It was just one that took care of business. But here the Broncos are, at 5-0 after graduating nearly 40 seniors off of last year's highly celebrated squad. Mesa Mountain View took an expected loss to Mountain Pointe last week, and this isn't the team to recover against. At least on paper. In my head, I'm still on the fence about the Broncos.

Prediction: Brophy 27, Mountain View 10

8)

Mountain Pointe is the monster that's eating the city. Pinnacle next on the menu. It'll take some serious offensive heroics to outpace Noah Grover, Gary Bragg, Jaydon Brooks and company. Let's see what Spencer Rattler has in store for Rashie Hodge and Isaiah Pola-Mao.

Prediction: Mountain Pointe 41, Pinnacle 21

7)

This game should be packed. Two of the toughest running backs in the state will be showcased on Thursday night's Cox 7 game of the week. I'll be in attendance, and I'll be interested to see if the game lasts more than 2.5 hours. I expect 70 running plays. At least.

Prediction: Centennial 21, Westview 17

6)

Pima will be missing its starting QB, and Thatcher historically dominates this matchup. I personally like Thatcher because they have played the toughest schedule of any small school, but if Pima scores the upset, it'll be because of the twins Eric Sorenson of Sports360AZ profiled last week.

Prediction: Thatcher 30, Pima 14

5)

I like Kellis. Josiah Bailey is playing exactly as well as many thought he would, but Damien Campbell has 7 rushing TDs and Kimani Nelson has 11 TD passes. They're about to face a top 3 5A defense though, and that'll be a shock to the system.

Prediction: Mesquite 24, Kellis 14

4)

Chase Cord needs to get rid of the ball early and often. Quick passes are the only way to keep Saguaro at bay, and Cord can work the sideline very well. The only problem is that the Sabercats defensive backs hit very hard. Those short passes aren't going to work for 4 quarters. Saguaro continues to roll.

Prediction: Saguaro 45, Sunrise Mountain 20

3)

Ironwood Ridge is giving up points, but winning big. I haven't seen the Nighthawks in person, so I don't know if that's a fluke or not. They'll need to be defensively stout against a Queen Creek team that hasn't had an easy go, schedule-wise. I'll be there on Friday because I'm expecting offensive fireworks.

Prediction: Queen Creek 42, Ironwood Ridge 40

2)

Hamilton has been waiting two years for a rematch with the team that nearly knocked them out of the first round of the 2014 playoffs. Skyline has been waiting all year to square off against the team whose coach made comments about the fact that they had no business playing in division 2 last year. Kaleb Hardin could be remembered for a long time if he carries the Coyotes to victory, but I think Tyler Shough's breakout game as a QB last week carries over and gives Hamilton the edge.

Prediction: Hamilton 28, Skyline 21

1)

Williams Field is rolling. They combined with the Campo Verde students to vote this my game of the week, but I already had it there, so I didn't have to move anything. I think it'll be a close one in the first half, perhaps even a Coyotes lead, but I expect that to flip by the time the fourth quarter expires.

Prediction: Williams Field 28, Campo Verde 24

Bonus Picks (predicted winners in caps)

CANYON DEL ORO at Marana

WILLOW CANYON at Valley Vista

PHOENIX CHRISTIAN at Arizona Lutheran