Arizona High School Football 16 for 2016: Week 6

Each week of the 2016 football season, I'll take you through my top 16 match-ups of the week, with analysis and predictions. The rankings associated with each team in the 16 for 2016 breakdown come from the ArizonaVarsity Media Poll.

You can also view the STATE FORTY EIGHT Power 48 Rankings here.

I went 14-5 in my picks last week. Congrats to Cesar Chavez, Casa Grande, Yuma Catholic, Marana and Valley Vista for proving me wrong. My best prediction was probably Hamilton over Skyline by a touchdown, since that's exactly how it went down.

Overall prediction record: 87-30 (74%)

16)

Pinnacle & Desert Mountain go into their Friday matchup a combined 1-10, and neither defense has surrendered less than 31 points in a game. None of that matters, as the Desert Valley section is up for grabs and everyone gets a fresh start. Whoever wins this game will control their own destiny, and can forget the first half of the season. Look for Pinnacle RB Hunter Griggs to get in the end zone after being bottled up by Centennial. With 13 combined interceptions thrown by two talented QBs who like taking risks in Austin Nuessle and Spencer Rattler, we might also see a DB make a big play.

Prediction: Pinnacle 48, Desert Mountain 38

15)

From 2005-2010, Mingus dominated this matchup. Since then, it's been fairly even, with Mingus winning a tight 20-15 game last season. Both teams have come a long ways as far as righting the ship defensively. Bradshaw Mountain gave up 70 in a season opening loss to Cactus, but is only giving up 14 points per game in 3 wins. Mingus surrenderred 63 to Higley in their season opening loss, and has only given up 65 points in fours games since that happened. The key in this game is for Mingus QB Trey Meyer to stay away from Bradshaw Mountain DE Jake Morales, who has 10 sacks. If Meyer is upright, Mingus should be able to match Bradshaw point-for-point. If not, Gunner Bundrick and his 17 yards per completion will put Mingus in the rearview mirror.

Prediction: Bradshaw Mountain 42, Mingus 38

14)

This will be the best competition that either team has faced in quite some time. Benjamin Franklin has looked good, but their 5 wins have come against teams that are a combined 3-22. I expect them to get the victory over 2A San Tan Foothills on Friday, but if STF can steal a win, you have to start talking about them as a legitimate top 10 team in 2A.

Prediction: Benjamin Franklin 34, San Tan Foothills 20

13)

Chandler has outscored Basha 165-38 in three victories over the last two years. THis game is about redemption for Ryan Kelley, who has been injured in two consecutive regular season contests, and is 48/72 with 365 passing yards, a touchdown and three interceptions against Chandler. Ryan Kelley has thrown for more than 365 yards in a single game six times, so Chandler must be doing something right. This is the year, however, that Chandler's pass defense has given up big plays. There's a chance Basha finds a way to stay in the game if they can generate turnovers or make a defensive stop. If not, the eye-opening recent history of dominance continues.

Prediction: Chandler 49, Basha 28

12)

Both Chaparral and Notre Dame have played some of the best competition, but their wins have come against the opposite. This game is important for both teams because they are dependent on a section title to earn a playoff spot, and the loser is going to have a near impossible road going forward. I've never really been able to discern what's going on at QB for Notre Dame, but I do know that Cole Fisher's been having success running the ball despite teams keying in on him. I expect him to go over 100 yards and score at least once. For Chaparral I feel like Robby Kriske is emerging as the go-to target that Grayson Barry needs in order to have success and lead the Firebirds on offense. If he can make a couple of plays, it might be the difference.

Prediction: Notre Dame 29, Chaparral 24

11)

A rematch of the 2000 state championship game that Thatcher won 14-13. To me, this seems like a sure Thatcher victory, but if you look at their games against a common opponent (Morenci), I might be wrong about that. If St. Johns QB John Robertson keeps up his efficient passing (7 of his last 17 completions have been for touchdowns), they might be able to hang in there.

Prediction: Thatcher 34, St. Johns 21

10)

One of two things can happen here. Casteel, which has been running like a well oiled machine, can steamroll Yuma Catholic by overwhelming them with their numbers, athleticism and schemes... OR... this is a Ferrari driving toward a brick wall. Yuma Catholic's last two wins on the road against River Valley and Northwest Christian are the most impressive back-to-back wins of any team in the state this year. They haven;t played at home since September 2nd, and the AIA rankings don't even have Yuma Catholic ranked in the top 16 of 3A. The Shamrocks have all the motivation in this one- but do they have the offensive firepower to outscore the Colts?

Prediction: Yuma Catholic 24, Casteel 21

9)

Dobson hanging with Desert Vista, and even holding a 4th quarter lead (ON THE ROAD) impressed me more than any of their four wins have. I'd go with the Mustangs, but I've been watching Lance Lawson highlight all week. It's hard to pick against this guy and his team.

Prediction: Red Mountain 32, Dobson 22

8)

It was very uncharacteristic of Skyline QB TJ Duarte to turn the ball over multiple times last week. I think the Coyotes will get back on track, but like they struggled with athletic "go up and get it" WR Chance Brewington, I think they'll struggle to contain Mesa Mountain View's Curtis Hodges. I think Hodges will break his 3-game TD slump.

Prediction: Skyline 28, Mesa Mountain View 20

7)

Ironwood Ridge wasn't able to overcome Queen Creek's physicality on defense, and power running game on offense. Luckily for the Nighthawks, Marana Mountain View isn't a power team, and they match up well. The key to a win for IR here is holding MMV below their 8 yards per rush on the season.

Prediction: Ironwood Ridge 38, Marana Mountain View 35

6)

After watching Queen Creek methodically run the ball behind the left side of their massive OL, I'm convinced they're probably the best "cheat code" offense in 5A. I also feel like they have enough offensively to handle transitioning to a passing attack i need be. Mesquite's defense has been the most surprising and impressive in the division this year, and if they can hold QB to only 2 touchdowns, they'll win.

Prediction: Queen Creek 21, Mesquite 16

5)

They have Tucson as a common opponent, and while the Lancers couldn't score against the Badgers, the Badgers couldn't stop the Bobcats. I think Cienega keeps their streak going, and Jamarye Joiner gets a win over his former school the same week that he became a 2018 Arizona verbal commit.

Prediction: Cienega 36, Salpointe 35

4)

I have no idea. I'm going to this game for at least a half because I've been told it's as raucaous as Chandler/Hamilton and Higley/Williams Field. I'm even skipping the biggest crowd of the year at the 'Tukee Bowl to see if it's true. Cactus is 6-3 over the last nine matchups with Peoria, but the Panthers are at home. I'm literally going to ask my three-year-old son if he likes Cobras or Panthers more...

He said snakes. Cactus it is.

Prediction: Cactus 28, Peoria 24

3)

American Leadership has had some tough games so far, while Florence's opponents have the same combined number of wins as ALA. Still, the Gophers QB Jared Wood can move the ball down the field, and is on pace for a 37 TD, 2,400+ yard regular season. This is the best passing threat ALA will have faced so far, and I think they pass the test.

Prediction: American Leadership 25, Florence 23

2)

Mountain Pointe takes it. RB Gary Bragg is out, but Noah Grover has enough reps to take control of this offense now. I think the Thunder will get 150+ rushing yards combined from Keishaud White, Lelon Dillard and Nick Thomas and that keeps the score low.

Prediction: Mountain Pointe 33, Desert Vista 21

1)

Brophy is much better than I thought they'd be after seeing them in zero week. Someone I talked to today said this is a team unburdened by having too many stars, and they're all bought in. I agree. Still, Hamilton has had the Broncos number since 2007, and they impressed me with the way they physically rebounded from the Desert Ridge loss.

Prediction: Hamilton 17, Brophy 10

BONUS GAME

Saguaro's offensive line will be intact after getting Corey Stephens back from a knee injury. I think this will be a game where the Sabercats show exactly how dominant they are in 4A, after handing Higley, Sunrise Mountain and Catalina Foothills their only losses so far. Naz Greer needs his receivers to step up and hold onto passes if they're going to hang for more than a couple of quarters.

Prediction: Saguaro 49, Marcos de Niza 14