Midseason Playoff Projections

BRACKETOLOGY BLOG: 9/17/18

Last weekend, Chilly asked if I would take a gaze into the future and see if I could do some number crunching and speculate as to who the teams might be in the 5A and 6A playoffs.

I willingly took the bait as I avidly follow the results in both the 5A and 6A Conferences. In addition, by keeping track of opponents' records within the schedules, I have a handle on which schools are playing higher caliber teams.

Of course, each team has now played four or five games, so while it may seem "too early" for such a thing (and I have never attempted to forecast the field in the month of September), in many cases, we have enough of an idea as to who each team is.

This list is not a look at where the teams stand now. That's what the weekly rankings are for. It's also not a prediction of what next week's official AIA rankings will be. It's a guess as to the final playoff seedings on October 27.

In forecasting this, the first step was to look at each team's remaining schedule and predict the wins and losses to give a final record. Next, I used the opponents' records to break ties between teams that had similar records. In addition, if there was a big disparity in SOS, a team that wins two or three fewer games could finish ahead of another one that didn't play as difficult of a slate.

Another thing to remember this year is the elimination of region champions getting automatic bids (in 5A and 6A). So, power points is the sole factor in determining the 16 playoff seeds. While none of us know the exact secret sauce of the formula, we do know that playing a tough schedule combined with winning several games will reward teams.

Open discussion on this is welcome either on Twitter or in the Arizona Varsity Gridiron Arizona Forum.

Finally, if you like where your team is on this list, don't get too comfortable. You still have to earn it! In addition, if you think I'm sleeping on your team, there's still time to make me look bad (and I know some teams will).

In 6A, the first out were Basha, Mountain View, and Shadow Ridge.

In 5A, the first out were Fairfax, Gilbert, and Paradise Valley.