The talent of five-star freshman duo Joshua Christopher and Marcus Bagley is undeniable. Of course when you're coming into your college career as a top-30 prospect, the expectations are going to be through the roof, but ask Arizona State fans -- a five star delivering on their potential isn't always guaranteed (see Keala King, and Carlton Bragg).
Christopher already has a 28-point performance against Villanova, one of the top teams in the country, while Bagley is 9-of-18 (50%) from three point range and led all scorers with 21 points in just 21 minutes against Houston Baptist.
After watching the first three games of Arizona State's young 2020-2021 college basketball season, these are the comparisons I feel best fit both Christopher and Bagley.
Joshua Christopher Comparison
Josh Christopher has shown that he can handle the ball with ease, but doesn't demand it in order to ignite his offensive potential. He can shoot, slash, run and create his own offense if he needs to. Coming into the season, Rivals ranked Christopher the No. 4 shooting guard in the 2020 recruiting class, which would put him on the level of Bryan Antoine (No. 4 in 2019, averaged 1 point per game at Villanova last year before injuring his shoulder), Anfernee Simons (No. 4 in 2018, drafted No. 24 overall straight out of IMG Academy, averaged 8 points per game as a bench player last year), and M.J. Walker (No. 4 in 2017, currently in his senior season at Florida State).
Christopher is head and shoulders above all of his recent predecessors.
Here's who I see him comparing favorably to:
High End: Devin Booker
Devin Booker wasn't always a franchise player with a Kardashian on his arm. Before he was the NBA's brightest young star right here in the Valley of the sun, he was a sixth man at University of Kentucky whose sharpshooting and relentless attacking earned him a spot in the NBA lottery. Christopher is an elite scorer from every level, and can get to the rim with regularity if you give him the space. I could see Christopher working his way into the lottery as Booker did, and his offensive skillset laying the foundation for his work ethic to earn him a max contract in his early 20's.
Most Likely: DeMar DeRozan
The biggest difference between DeMar DeRozan and Josh Christopher is that DeRozan didn't find his range until after his one-and-done season at USC, and even then, it still isn't his forte. DeRozan is an attacking scorer, who after being selected 9th overall in 2009, managed to average 17 points per game with Toronto by his second season, and is currently on his seventh consecutive season of averaging over 20 points per game. Josh Christopher is like DeRozan in that his most evident trait is the ability to manufacture offense. Like DeRozan, I don't think Christopher will have any problem consistently putting up 20-5-5 games at the NBA level.
Low End: Will Barton
At the absolute least, you could see Josh Christopher have a career not unlike Will Barton, the No. 11 overall prospect in the class of 2010, who left Memphis after his sophomore year only to have NBA teams completely miss on the opportunity to add him as a complimentary combo guard (he fell to No. 40 overall). All Barton has done since then is establish himself as one of the most dependable bench players in the NBA, which as of recent turned into a starting role in Denver alongside Jamal Murray, and averages of 15-6-3 while shooting 37% from three point range.
Marcus Bagley Comparison
Marcus Bagley covers so much of the floor with each stride, is a smooth and consistent shooter from the outside, and has shown great comfort in rotating the ball around the perimeter, and against Houston Baptist, even showed the ability to drive and kick out to create for others. He was a late riser in the Rivals rankings, and coming in as the No. 6 overall SF in the 2020 class has him in the same slot as Isaac Okoro (No. 6 SF in 2019, No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft out of Auburn), Louis King (No. 6 SF in 2018, declared for the 2019 NBA Draft after averaging 14 points per game at Oregon, went undrafted and is now with the Detroit Pistons G-League affiliate), and KZ Okpala (No. 6 SF in 2017, second round pick in 2019 after averaging 17 points per game as a sophomore at Stanford).
NBA paychecks are a minimum expectation for Marcus Bagley. The question is what will his impact be?
High End: Jaylen Brown
If Marcus Bagley is able to put it all together, he might have an impact rivaling former Arizona State Pac-12 foe Jaylen Brown. Brown came to Cal as the No. 3 recruit in the entire country in the class of 2015, and made the jump tot he NBA after one season of averaging 15 points per game. The upside was always there with Brown, who went 3rd overall to the Boston Celtics in 2016, and has since averaged 20 points per game in the playoffs in two separate Eastern Conference Finals runs. Bagley has the size and the potential, but will NBA scouts see similar upside in him to that of Brown, and will Bagley have the rare fortune to be a lottery pick of an already talented roster? Only time will tell.
Most Likely: Harrison Barnes
To this day it's hard to believe that Harrison Barnes didn't make the jump to the NBA after his freshman year at North Carolina. After a sophomore campaign where he continued to be the country's most elite shooting wing player, Barnes was drafted 7th overall by the Golden State Warriors, and continued his tear from the outside for what ended up being a championship team. Barnes is now considered a must-have for any NBA roster, as someone who can stretch the floor and hit the three with high efficiency. He's teammates with Marcus Bagley's older brother Marvin in Sacramento, and makes over $20 million per year to consistently hit 38+% from the outside. It's very evident that if he wanted to simply hone his skills as a specialist, Marcus Bagley's size and shooting ability could give him a very similar career trajectory to Barnes, and make him a perpetually in-demand asset.
Low End: T.J. Warren
Local Arizona sports fans know that TJ Warren went into this last NBA season as the most underappreciated offensive weapon in the league. He woke everybody up with multiple 50-point performances, and now anyone preparing to play the Indiana Pacers have to make stopping Warren part of the game plan. But before TJ Warren was a budding NBA star, he was simply instant offense. Warren is a near-reincarnation of former Phoenix Sun Cedric Ceballos with his ability to get hot and carry a team for a quarter here and there. While Warren, up until recently, wasn't really an A+ player in any facet of his game, he managed to do everything relatively well on the offensive end, and because of that, this comparison, for Marcus Bagley fans, should be seen as a compliment. Where I think Marcus Bagley might have the opportunity to exceed Warren as a player is with his athleticism, which could allow for him to elevate his stature on the defensive end.
