REALIGNMENT BLOG: 1/26/19

With the new year (and decade) here, it's realignment time once again! Last Tuesday, the football reclassification committee of the Arizona Interscholastic Association (AIA) heard appeals from those that didn't agree with their initial conference placements from last month. We'll get to those results in a little bit.

But first, a little about this 2020 realignment, which differs from those that have been done over the past 10 years.

The biggest change for this realignment is enrollment was completely thrown out. For the past four seasons, that was the only factor used when placing teams.

Another significant change is football is being treated differently than other sports. In the current school year, all of a team's athletic programs are at the same level.

The model that was used looked at a team's success on the field over the past three seasons. The MaxPreps power ratings were used and it was broken down as 50 percent from the 2019 season, 35 percent from 2018, and 15 percent from 2017.

In each conference anywhere from two to five teams were moved up or down. The maximum that a school could shift from its current position was just one conference.

This will be just a one-year realignment, and scheduling season. In December, teams will again be shifted, regions will be reconstructed and new schedules drafted for the 2021 season.

One disappointing thing was the topic was not brought up in December about awarding teams that win regions automatic berths into the postseason (in 5A and 6A). South Mountain won the 5A Metro Region in 2019, but didn't finish among the top 16 in 5A.

The Open Division, which debuted in 2019, will remain in play again (for at least two more seasons) with the same parameters. It will pick the highest-ranked eight schools from the 6A, 5A, and 4A Conferences.

In all, 13 schools were moved up and 12 schools were moved down. The football conferences heard appeals on Jan. 21. Then, regions will be worked on with the intent to have the initial placements completed on Jan. 29. Teams will be able to appeal regions assigned and those will be finalized on Feb. 19.

Open Division teams from last season, Saguaro (4A), Salpointe (4A), and Centennial (5A) are all moving up one conference. Also, the runner-up in the 4A Conference championship, Desert Edge will be heading to 5A, where it played in the 2016 and '17 seasons. The champion in the 5A Conference, Williams Field, will be playing in 6A for the first time.

As for the appeals in 6A and 5A? Notre Dame Prep was placed in 6A and won an appeal to remain in 5A. North and Trevor Browne, which were 6A schools in 2019, also attempted to appeal down to 5A, but were denied. Empire was placed in 5A, where it played in 2018 and 2019. The Ravens wanted to move down to 3A (where they were from 2015-17), but were only approved to slide down to the 4A Conference. Goldwater and West Point lost appeals to move to the 4A.

After the appeals, the current 6A numbers show the total number of teams climbing from 37 to 38. The 5A total also nudges up one from 43 to 44. Two schools playing their first varsity seasons in 2020, Canyon View (Waddell) and West Point (Avondale), were placed in 5A due to enrollment. Canyon View opened last year with freshman only and West Point began classes and sports this year.

So, here's a look at what the 6A and 5A conferences will look like:

Moving UP from 5A to 6A: Casteel, Centennial, Higley, Williams Field

Moving DOWN from 6A to 5A: Alhambra, Kofa, Maryvale

Moving UP from 4A to 5A: Desert Edge, Saguaro, Salpointe

NEW schools joining 5A: Canyon View, West Point

Moving DOWN from 5A to 4A: Carl Hayden, Empire, Sierra Linda

Moving UP from 3A to 4A: ALA-Queen Creek, Benjamin Franklin, Northwest Christian

Moving DOWN from 4A to 3A: Cortez, Dysart

Moving UP from 2A to 3A: Phoenix Christian, Round Valley, Thatcher

Moving DOWN from 3A to 2A: Catalina, Holbrook, Kingman Academy, Tanque Verde,

My Thoughts: In my opinion, the Open Division was created solely due to the success of Saguaro (which won 11 titles in 13 years - 10 of them at the 4A level) and Centennial (which played in 11 championship games in 14 years and won 7 of them - all but one at the 5A level). The concern among the AIA was that the winners were almost predetermined with Chandler in the 6A, Centennial in the 5A, and Saguaro in the 4A. However, if you look back at last season, I believe we would have had close championship games without the Open Division with Chandler vs. Hamilton in the 6A, Centennial vs. Williams Field in the 5A, and Saguaro vs. Salpointe in the 4A.

Nonetheless, we still have the Open Division (for two more seasons) and we have now started to move some teams up (and down). The question you have to ask yourself is: What is the intent? Is it to ultimately get Centennial, Saguaro, and Chandler all in the 6A? If so, we are now 2/3 of the way there with the Coyotes making the jump in 2020. With the current formula using three years of data, 50 percent of Saguaro's 2021 realignment number has already been cast (with the Sabercats at 24-3) with the other 50 percent dependent on how the '20 season goes.

Or, is the intent to ultimately have the best 40 teams in the 6A? If that is the case, it will take a long time for this to happen only moving three teams out at a time. I was wondering if this first realignment under this system would move more teams up and down.

The message given when this realignment proposal was released was that enrollment would not matter. It would be solely decided by results on the field. Well, that kind of got knocked sideways when Notre Dame Prep (37-4 over the last three years) was granted an appeal with the primary reasons being that the Saints had 30 freshman players last season, the school rarely getting transfers, getting blasted twice by Centennial in the championship, and having to play in 6A with a smaller enrollment number (837).

Meanwhile, both North (6-14 the past two years with five of those wins coming against teams that will be in 5A in 2020) and Trevor Browne (11-19 the past three years with nine of those wins coming against teams that will be in 5A or 4A in 2020) were denied appeals to move down to 5A. Does anyone think that if North or Trevor Browne lined up against NDP, the game would have a running clock by the third quarter? Cesar Chavez, the 6A Metro Region champion last year, defeated North and Trevor Browne by a combined total of 127-12. Yes, Notre Dame loses some talented seniors from this season, but the Saints will bring up a JV team that went undefeated (8-0) last year.

Last year, when the Open Division made its debut, most observers believed Salpointe and Saguaro would be the schools to come out of the 4A Conference and they could likely compete with the bigger schools in that tournament. That proved to be correct with the Lancers defeating Pinnacle and leading Chandler in the third quarter. Likewise, the Sabercats beat Horizon and Hamilton before staging a second-half rally to come within a touchdown of Chandler. But now, those teams are up in 5A. We saw that the formula had a difficult time of comparing 6A teams to 4A teams (there weren't enough data points that matched to give a complete analysis). Assuming the formula remains the same, are there 4A teams that can compete with the bigger teams this year? The question is asked because it's likely that at least two schools from the 4A will make it to the Open (which is only available to 4A, 5A, and 6A schools). Mesquite will bring back quarterback Ty Thompson and the Wildcats defeated Gilbert last year. However, MHS also lost to Campo Verde (64-6) and Saguaro (53-0). Canyon del Oro may have the best running back in the 4A with Stevie Rocker, but the Dorados were blanked by Salpointe last season (35-0) and mustered just 92 yards while allowing 419.

The bottom line to the AIA is this: You need to figure out what you want to accomplish both with the realignment and with the Open Division. If you look at it long term, having the best teams up at the 6A eliminates the need to have them compete with 5A and 4A teams for state supremacy while also placing those 4A and 5A teams at a decided disadvantage as you would have the 41st-ranked team (or 81st in 4A) playing the top schools.