Each week of the 2016 football season, I'll take you through my top 16 match-ups of the week, with analysis and predictions. The rankings associated with each team in the 16 for 2016 breakdown come from the ArizonaVarsity Media Poll.
You can also view the STATE FORTY EIGHT Power 48 Rankings here.
I went 16-1 in my picks last week. Brophy just couldn't let me be perfect.
Overall prediction record: 103-31 (77%)
16)
Prediction: Apollo is in the rare position of having had a terrible start to the season, but still being able to win their section. They aren't a bad team, and with Maricopa's offensive output taking a slight dip this season, a win here would set Apollo up nicely. I think the Rams hold their own, however, and inch closer toward their first appearance in the media poll's top 10.
Maricopa 23, Apollo 18
15)
Prediction: Since not being able to find an offensive rhythm against Boulder Creek, Liberty is averaging nearly 50 points per game. Chaparral needs a run game to keep Liberty's offense off the field, and I'm not sure they have it.
Liberty 36, Chaparral 24
14)
Prediction: Desert Edge is in championship form right now, so why would I include a game with 3-3 Deer Valley in my top 16? Well, I've seen Deer Valley, and they've been the toughest out for two of 5A's best teams in Williams Field and Queen Creek. If Deer Valley can ugly this game up and get a push from an OL that's almost as talented as the one the Scorpions boast, it might be close enough to provide some shocking results.
Desert Edge 33, Deer Valley 21
13)
Prediction: The last thing to happen to both these teams was a blowout loss to Thatcher. Time to see how Pima and St. Johns respond. Pima's at bit of a disadvantage having to travel 200 miles, and SJH's defense pitched four shutouts to start the season. I'm leaning their way, although Pima is 4-0 on the road this season.
St. Johns 27, Pima 21
12)
Prediction: Trap game! There's no reason Dysart should lose, right? They're at home (it's a long drive from AJ), they have a better offense, a better defense, have beat some good competition and are coming off their most convincing win of the season. As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. I think AJ gives the Demons a scare in this one. They might not pull it out, but I think it'll be a close game.
Dysart 29, Apache Junction 24
11)
Prediction: Much like with Florence last week, not many are buying onto Wickenburg's 6-0 record based on the strength of their schedule so far. Wickenburg is going to do one thing- run the ball. They have 4 players with over 40 carries, and if the Crusaders can't find a way to stuff the run, it'll be another win for the Wranglers. I've never picked a NWC game correctly, so I know they probably won't like this.
Northwest Christian 34, Wickenburg 26
10)
Prediction: Tempe Prep is vulnerable on defense, but offensively, they'll wear you down. Phoenix Christian has gotten a depth boost from Joy Christian transfers, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to keep the time of possession from being lopsided in favor of the Knights. Close call, but I think Tempe Prep gets the job done at Mesa Community College.
Tempe Prep 26, Phoenix Christian 24
9)
Prediction: This game shouldn't be close, but I'm including it because of how unique Saguaro's position is within the 4A conference this year. This will be their 5th game against one of the AIA/Maxpreps top 10 teams, and it creates a situation where the Sabercats will have run through nearly all of their serious playoff challengers. Some may not like how it worked out, but you'd have to be crazy to not consider it noteworthy.
Saguaro 55, Thunderbird 18
8)
Prediction: Mesa Mountain View has been struggling offensively, and needs to find a way to get the ball in Curtis Hodges' hands. Austin Duffy's addition has freed Lance Lawson up to be a weapon all over the field. I like Red Mountain in this one.
Red Mountain 33, Mountain View 24
7)
Prediction: After what Queen Creek did to Ironwood Ridge and Mesquite in back-to-back weeks, it's hard to pick against the Bulldogs. Campo Verde's best win so far is last week's 10-0 slugfest over Vista Grande, but they showed some serious offensive deficiencies in that game and I can't go with the Coyotes until they prove themselves against a top-tier 5A team.
Queen Creek 35, Campo Verde 21
6)
Prediction: This game is important for Marcos de Niza's playoff positioning, and to prove that they haven't hit 2a midseason spiral they can't get out of. For Cactus Shadows, this is about proving they belong in the conversation as one of the top teams in 4A. I'm picking the Falcons because they have multiple threats in the running game, and that's what got Marcos down big against Saguaro last week.
Cactus Shadows 29, Marcos de Niza 26
5)
Prediction: Matthew Eberhardt is going to win some jump ball battles this week, but it won't be enough for the Cobras to stop Chase Cord from manuevering in the pocket and racking up points.
Sunrise Mountain 45, Cactus 32
4)
Prediction: This is a game I really want to be at. Mason Crossland knows where his receivers are going to be, and his offensive line is giving him time to work. Casa Grande plays best when their stars show out. If Higley can stop Trevor Russell from scoring early, they win big, if not, I think it'll be a game.
Higley 38, Casa Grande 30
3)
Prediction: Sabino came back from their loss in California ready to work. They've beaten their last 3 opponents by an average of 61-2. Pusch Ridge is known for a stingy defense, but I'm not sure it will be stingy enough in this potential playoff preview.
Sabino 32, Pusch Ridge 18
2)
Prediction: I know it's early, but I feel like the playoffs are on the line for Marana Mountain View. They missed the tournament last season with a talented roster, and sitting at #13 right now, a loss to Desert View might have them on the outside looking to get back in. For Desert View, this is their 'prove it' game. Are they a 5A contender, or for the second year in a row, are they a good early season storyline?
Marana Mountain View 38, Desert View 31
1)
Prediction: Perry has the advantage on special teams, and they both have inexperienced defenses, so for me, this comes down to who has the better offense. Brock Purdy, the James brothers, Cutter Hatch and Kenny Fultz are impressive pieces, but to me, TJ Green and Gunner Romney are worth 4 touchdowns themselves, and who knows what Ryan and Johnny Johnson will bring to the table? I like Chandler to outpace the Pumas.
Chandler 44, Perry 34
BONUS PICKS (Predicted winner in all caps)
Basha at BROPHY
DESERT MOUNTAIN at Mountain Ridge
ROUND VALLEY at Morenci
Ben Franklin at SAFFORD
Paradise Valley at NOTRE DAME
