Nico Mannion came into high school with enormous expectations, saw his national reputation explode when Sports Illustrated wrote an extensive profile piece on him when he was still only 15 years old, then reclassified to enter college a year early after leading Pinnacle to a state championship.
After playing his freshman year at University Arizona, and seeing his season cut short via the sports world's reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, Mannion has elected to forego the remainder of his eligibility and enter the 2020 NBA Draft. The team at ArizonaVarsity reflects on his season in Tucson, and gives their thoughts on how his game will translate to the next level.
Jared Cohen
"I think Nico Mannion proved himself capable as an NBA prospect. Whether or not he is ready at this very moment is a separate question. 18-19 year-olds are going to be inconsistent, and for the most part, Nico had a lot of trouble stringing together consecutive good games last season. Which is honestly, to be expected. His typical freshman inconsistency was magnified many times throughout the season due to the fact that too much fell on his shoulders handle the ball, score, and shoot from the outside.
Shooting consistency was a problem for Arizona all year, and with how poorly his supporting cast shot the ball, it forced him to take looks that often failed to set him up for success. Maybe that's making excuses for him, but look at the way Pinnacle High was able to space the floor, and how he was able to get to the rim due to the shooters they had on the floor. Opposing teams stayed in a zone defense against the Wildcats because no one could shoot with confidence.
On the positive side, Mannion's ball handling, court vision, ability to get to the foul line, his lovely floater, explosion at the rim, and ability to hit from the outside are all the attributes of a pro-level prospect. And even though his Wildcats team was the opposite of clutch this season, he made some pretty big plays in key games, and at key venues, which you know NBA teams covet.
He does need to improve his defensive consistency and his outside shot. Guards in the NBA today need to be able to score all over the floor, and him shooting 2-14 (Baylor), 3-20 (Gonzaga), 2-14 (UCLA) would lead you to believe he is not ready to be an impact point guard like a Steph Curry or Damian Lillard, because his shot isn't anywhere near that level. The expectation shouldn't be for him to come in and be on that level, but his ability to dribble, create, and get to the basket indicate that the foundation is there for him to build himself into a special player. If he gets his shot going, the sky is still the limit. Until then, being able to guard guys like that will not be an easy task by any means, but that's going to be his job, and he has to be able to hold his own.
"I see Mannion ending up on a team where there is a point guard currently in place and he comes in as a back up. Depending on the situation, there is certainly an opportunity to make a big impact early as a back-up point guard. Insert Fred Van Vleet. If he is thrown into a situation where he is starting every night, I do worry about too much being thrown at him out of the gates.
I really hate to put this out there, but I have long thought that the San Antonio Spurs would be a perfect fit for Nico Mannion. He has some Tony Parker in him. He is crafty, gets to the rim, makes use of that lovely floater I previosuly mentioned, and makes plays in transition. The Spurs have been missing a point guard like that. Plus, what an opportunity to for him to learn from Coach Pop and have scorers like LaMarcus Alrdrige and Demar Derozan around him. I do think the Spurs could have their eyes on Killian Hayes at 11, as drafting another French point guard will probably be a higher priority for this "next Tony Parker" narrative.
I think the Boston Celtics are an interesting fit. He could back up (and even play alongside) Kemba Walker in the backcourt. The Blazers as a Lillard back-up makes sense considering where they will be picking as well.
I do also think the Suns would be a good fit. Steve Nash said something interesting when he was on the Bill Simmons podcast recently. He said one of the biggest problems with the Suns teams of his era is that his back-ups were forced to continue to play the same style of play when Nash was out of the game. It didn't set them up for success and they should have changed the way they played when he wasn't on the floor. Thinking about that notion with today's Suns, you saw something very similar when Ricky Rubio was in the game versus when he wasn't. If you have Nico backing up a player like Ricky Rubio, who I believe could mirror each other well in terms of style of play, there is no longer that void and the Suns can continue to attack the way Monty Williams wants to. Pair that with the timing. Ricky Rubio is under contract for two more years. That gives Nico the chance to learn and have a back up role for two seasons before being presented an opportunity to break out. There's a chance the Suns don't make their first round pick this season and trade it (Go get Lauri Markanen, please), so that's why this notion takes a back seat to the Spurs."
Brad Cesmat
"Sure, I'd take Nico on my team. I'm a big fan of his game. He is not physically developed yet, so I don't get caught up in the criticism of him not being strong enough.You play the long game with one-and-done players. I love his vision, and I love his ability to take risks. He's not a mechanical player.
He shot just 39.2% from the field with the Wildcats, so he must get better with his shot selection, and that will come depending on who he's surrounded by on the court."
Gregg Rosenberg
"I do think Nico Mannion proved himself to be a capable NBA draft prospect. Most 'prospects' are graded off of potential and I think he has that proper potential to go to the league. His speed with the ball, lateral quickness to defend and athleticism will translate to the next level. He had a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio, which is good considering he is a freshman and played with 2 other freshmen starters."
"He will need to improve his shooting. His career could range between the difference of a fringe starter or a possible All-Star if he acheives top notch shooting. I like to look at players toughest games and see how they do. In his two toughest games of the season (vs Baylor and Gonzaga) he was 6-34 from the field, and 2-15 from long range. He obviously had some incredible games during the season as well.
The funny thing is, I think he would be a great fit with the Phoenix Suns. It would give him the chance to learn the position under the tutelage of NBA vet Ricky Rubio. Rubio is a true professional at the point, and been around the game globally since he was a teenager. With Elie Okobo also on the roster from France, it could be a perfect match with Mannion since he speaks fluent French. Okobo could be another player to teach Mannion the ropes. With Ricky Rubio being one of the best passers, and a league leader in steals when he was younger. I like that potential marriage in Phoenix."
"Mannion's NBA fate obviously all depends on where he goes, and the current roster situation of that NBA team. If he goes knowing he will have to start or just beat out some journeyman, he will probably get 4-6 assists a game with 2-3 turnovers as well. He will probably give that team 24-28 minutes a night as a starter. Now if he goes to a team where he can be the backup at first to an older vet, (which is probably the most ideal for him), then he will be the backup point guard and play around 14-19 minutes a game. The situation he is drafted into will control almost everything his 1st season. I mean Steve Nash started backing up a Hall of Fame PG in Jason Kidd, and only got 10 minutes a night, but he improved his game as he got older and more comfortable with the NBA game, and ended up becoming a Hall of Fame PG himself. So you never know!"
Ralph Amsden
"Nico Mannion was the only freshman in the country playing in a major conference to average over five assists a game. Sure, he had a disappointing year by University of Arizona fan standards, a group whose ultimate judgement on your value comes down to whether or not you're helping the team dominate the competition, but this was an absurdly young squad with extreme issues of inconsistency from the outside. But does his game translate? Absolutely.
Nico Mannion is already at a B+ in so many different categories, that it's hard to see him not being able to succeed in the NBA if he puts in the work. His court vision is very good. Is it on Lonzo Ball's level? No, but a step down from there isn't bad. Nico Mannion's passing and explosiveness are very good. Are they on Ja Morant's level? No, but again, one rung down from the best young PG prospects of the last couple of years isn't anything to be upset about.
The most intruguing part of Mannion's game for me is that he has the ability to create his own shot off the dribble, and can get you in the air if that shot is falling... which means he then becomes a threat to get past you and get to the rim. His game reminds me a whole lot of former Oregon State and NBA G Brent Barry. He might not have the wing size that Barry had, but every other element of his game is there.
Like most young prospects, he needs to be in the right situation in order to thrive. I don't expect much of Mannion as a rookie, and he'd probably be better off going to a situation where they already have a settled situation at PG, and he can take a year or two to strength train. Milwaukee at #19 overall could be a solid landing spot as they're currently married to Eric Bledsoe at the point. Utah at #24 would be almost ideal, as Mike Conley has made an entire career of maximizing his talent through effort, and learning from Conley while seeing how a playmaker like Donovan Mitchell prepares day in and day out, could be a unique formative experience."
